In the latest Take 5, Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, breaks down the Fed’s first rate cut after a nine-month pause, why the labor market is driving policy decisions, and what investors should expect next. From shaky jobs data to fiscal stimulus on the horizon, this episode expl …
The U.S. economy continued to show signs of a mismatch between demand and supply. Nearly 3 million workers have been unemployed for more than a year; yet, there are 9 million available jobs in the U.S. (Figure 1). Matching those open positions with available workers remains key to a sustain …
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U.S. payrolls jumped 850,000 in June after two months of mediocre hiring (Figure 1). With these gains, the private sector has now reinstated 73% of the jobs lost during the pandemic. Restaurants and hotels led the hiring, as the leisure and hospitality industry added 343,000 new positions.
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The challenge of higher prices is starting to weigh on home sales. New and existing home sales both dipped last month while the median price of existing homes sold topped $350,000 for the first time. Vacation home sales jumped 57.2% over the last year.
The Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast 1.0% for this year to 3.4% and indicated inflation will stay near its target of 2.0% in coming years. Based on a more rapid recovery and higher-than-expected inflation in recent months, Fed officials estimate the Fed will raise interest rate …
